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蒋和平等:粮食减产及成因不容忽视

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  2018年我国夏粮总播种面积40054万亩,比2017年下降0.6%;总产量13872万吨,比2017年下降2.2%;粮食单产346.3公斤/亩,比2017年下降1.6%,这是近13年来罕见的“三量齐降”现象。课题组连续三年在粮食主产区(河南、湖南、黑龙江、吉林等)针对粮食安全问题进行重点调研,认为“三量齐降”已开始预警粮食安全,应引起国家主管部门的高度重视。

  一、不容忽视:粮食减产及成因

  我国粮食生产在2017年达到历史上第二高产年后,2018年夏粮明显减产。预计全年粮食总产量低于上年,约减产3-5%。夏粮中,小麦占92%以上,小麦主产区在收获时节大范围遭遇低温和连续阴雨天气,强降温造成小麦严重受冻,对小麦产量和质量均造成了严重影响。粮食减产虽然受天气因素的突发影响,但其背后是多种因素叠加导致的必然结果。

  (一)有效粮田面积与粮食播种面积的减少

  首先是城镇化占地。据自然资源部发布的2017中国土地矿产海洋资源统计公报,2017年比2016年耕地面积减少32.04万亩。据2017年11月全国耕地保护工作会议的报告,近五年来,全国建设占用耕地1560万亩,同期补充2259万亩,但城镇化占用的大多是熟地和良田,而补充的土地短期内不能达到基本农田的标准。

  其次是政策导向变化。2016年农业部公布“到2020年调减玉米面积5000万亩以上”,调减的重点是“镰刀弯”地区。这些地区将少种玉米,而改种豆类、饲草、经济林果、青储玉米等适宜种植的植物。2017年已经有2000多万亩农田由种粮食转为种饲料和经济作物。

  再次是结构调整。为了提高经济效益,各地采取多种方式引导农民调整种植结构,如推广“粮改饲、粮改草、粮改经”,提倡耕地休闲与轮作等。农民通过改种经济作物,或者改变粮食种植方式,减少劳动投入并提高产出,使得粮食有效种植面积在降低。如南方大片农区种两季或三季粮食的,今年多数农民改为一季种植。

  最后是农民撂荒行为。调研发现,经济穷县和外出农民大县,都是粮田撂荒较多的地区。河南固始县有近7%的耕地撂荒,江西萍乡市农村有30%的耕地撂荒,海南省撂荒两年以上的耕地共8.14万亩,广西横县有近8%的耕地撂荒。

  (二)种粮劳动力稀缺

  2017年7月,课题组在河南省的两个产粮大县(固始县、息县)调查发现,主要留在村里种粮的劳动力,50岁以上的约占70%,40岁以下仅占6%;女性占63.7%,男性占36.3%。农业劳动力稀缺凸显在两方面:一是春种、夏收和秋收三个大忙时期,种粮大户招工难。二是农业雇工的日工资逐年上升,三年前雇短期工,每天要50-100元,现在要100-200元(农忙时节更高),农机手等技术工还要高些。

  (三)种粮成本上升和利润降低

  自2011年来,我国农业劳动力费用、农业生产资料价格和土地流转费用不断上升,单位面积种粮净收益不断下降。近6年三大谷物每亩净收益一路下滑。2016年只有稻谷略有微利,每亩净利润141.96 元,小麦和玉米都有不同程度的亏损。其中,玉米下降幅度最大,2011年每亩净利润263.09元,2016年每亩亏损299.70元。

  根据2018年河南小麦生产经营数据,按平均亩产700斤计算,种粮小户每亩净收益100-150元(未计粮农本人劳务费和耕地补贴款);种粮大户每亩亏损450-650元(未计粮农本人劳务费和耕地补贴款)。

  (四)基层农业技术力量薄弱

  产粮县大多财政经费紧张,在产粮大省的调查发现,许多县都撤销了乡一级农业技术推广站,而整编为乡镇农业综合服务中心,只保留1-2名在编的农业技术员和3-4名合同工,这些人又常常被抽调去搞乡里工作,缺乏下乡进行技术服务的积极主动性。

  二、未雨绸缪:粮食安全问题应高度重视和应对

  (一)树立新的国家粮食生产安全观

  新时代应当树立新的粮食生产安全观,内容主要包括:数量平衡安全、质量无害安全、效益递增安全、生态环境安全等四部分。粮食生产必须从追求高产和增产的“高产量”为重的导向,转变为调优结构、提高质量的“以粮食有效供给为重”的发展导向。粮食生产要追求社会效益、经济效益和生态效益的统一。

  (二)保障粮食安全三大重点

  第一,有效的粮食生产。今后的粮食生产应从三个方面加强有效供给:第一,注重提高质量,保障粮食的无害性,提高营养价值,推进粮食品牌建设。第二,注重优化品种结构和科学合理的生产模式。我国粮食品种结构应随着城乡居民粮食需求变化而调整,注重种地养地的合理轮作与种养结合。第三,要在粮食收获、运输、储存、加工、消费等环节坚决遏止浪费,减少无效损耗。

  第二,有效的粮食进口。在全球化和市场化的背景下,要从宏观上把握我国的粮食供需平衡,根据国内粮食生产情况,利用粮食配额和关税与非关税措施,合理调控各种粮食的进口量。对于我国产能强、库存大的粮食品种,要少进口或不进口,避免出现“进口粮”把“国产粮”挤进仓库积压的情况。

  第三,有效的粮食储备。继续执行粮食“去库存”政策,根据我国国情特点,并参照联合国粮农组织的标准,制定我国粮食储备的科学界限。课题组认为:我国粮食储备量占消费总量的比例设定在25%为宜,其中,战略应急储备15%,商业调剂储备10%。根据我国目前的粮食消费量、粮食产能预测,我国未来5年的适宜粮食储备总量应为1.5亿吨左右(上限1.8亿吨,中值1.5亿吨,下限1.3亿吨)。中储粮等相关单位应继续压缩现有超高库存,提高库存效率,减少损耗,做好粮食储存方案合理调整。

  三、贯彻落实粮食提质保量增效的几项政策建议

  第一,严守粮田有效面积和粮食播种面积红线。粮田是保障我国粮食安全的根基。要实现粮食自给率95%的目标,落实习主席提出的“让饭碗牢牢端在中国人自己手里”的指示,最起码需要有15亿亩有效粮田面积和17亿亩粮食播种面积,必须严守粮食安全的底线。

  第二,提高种粮补贴标准,有效增加粮农收益。建议废除耕地地力保护补贴,代之以种粮专项补贴,分品种施策。玉米每亩补150元,水稻和小麦每亩补250元,大豆每亩补300元。

  第三,继续加强高标准农田基本建设,提高粮食综合生产能力,增强自然风险抵御能力。建议各市县设立“高标准农田建设委员会”,书记或县市长挂帅,分管农口的副职具体负责,由农业局牵头、发改委、土地局、水利局等相关部门联合落实高标准农田建设任务。高标准农田建设项目经费,由市县统一安排部署,统一监督实施,统一建成验收。

  第四,适度提高基层农业技术人员的工资和福利待遇水平。建议在不改变现有工资级别标准的基础上,为到生产第一线指导工作的农业技术人员,设置技术服务补贴。

  第五,注重品质好产量高的粮食品种培育工作。要大力支持并鼓励育种专家培育适合本地生态条件的优质高产品种,打造有自主知识产权的优良品种。

  第六,建议国家在黑龙江、吉林和内蒙三省大豆种植多的市县和垦区设立“非转基因大豆原产地保护区”,在保护区内严禁种植转基因大豆,从而有效保护我国非转基因大豆的种子资源。

  (作者,中国农业科学院农业经济与发展研究所 蒋和平教授 杨东群副研究员)

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